Presidential candidate Federico Gutiérrez referred to the criticism that some sectors have made of the most recent polls, which reflect a growth in his presidential campaign.
The candidate for the House of Nariño assured that these measurements must be respected and not valued only when they are winning. Gutiérrez reiterated that he does not understand why at this time, when he is growing in the different measurements that have been made, they do launch harsh criticism against the polls.
“It is that there are those who, three weeks ago, the surveys seemed wonderful to them, when they were first. They served them when they were first, but now that they are not winning, they are disqualified,” said Gutiérrez, who asked for respect for the results.
He assured that the surveys are “photos of the moment and, what I have seen with those that were published over the weekend, is that my feelings reflect what I see on the street, which in the long run is the best survey.”
For that reason, he said that he will increase his work in the streets to win the vote of the citizens and to increase the intention to vote in these weeks that remain for the appointment at the polls that will be on May 29: “You can see the work we have been doing and that was reflected in the March 13 consultation, where we won the consultation and today it shows that we have one foot in the second round.”
For the presidential candidate, the trend in the polls shows that it is not impossible to win in the first round, but he is aware that it is teamwork and with the support of different political sectors: “The trend shows that if we unite, we are capable to win in the first round and we avoid the risk for Colombia”.
Second presidential round, heart attack
In the final stretch of the presidential elections, it is practically a fact that the second round will be between Gustavo Petro and Federico Gutiérrez. This promises to be one of the closest races in the country’s recent history. This is demonstrated by the most recent survey of the National Consulting Center (CNC) for WEEKwith 4,206 face-to-face interviews in 75 municipalities in all regions, and a margin of error of 1.5%.
If the vote were today, in a second round scenario, Petro would have 43.1% and Fico 40.1%. Taking into account the margin of error, this means that the difference between the two would be approximately 315,000 votes. This is based on an electoral census of 38 million potential voters and a level of participation in the polls of 54%, as in 2018, which would give approximately 21 million voters.
According to the survey, ahead of the first round, Petro today has 36.5% voting intention. Although it is a considerable figure and one that has been on the rise, the candidate of the Historical Pact still does not have enough to win the Presidency on May 29. For its part, Fico, after having triumphed in the referendum of the Equipo por Colombia coalition, is consolidated with 24.5%.
The advantage of Petro and Fico over the other candidates is of such magnitude that it would be difficult for any of them to unseat them and prevent their passage to the second round. While Petro and Fico continue to rise, Rodolfo Hernández stagnated and is at 10%. Sergio Fajardo (8.4%) and Ingrid Betancourt (1.5%) are losing ground. In fact, Fajardo’s aggressive strategy of the last two weeks is not working for him and, on the contrary, seems to be doing him harm.
Fajardo is today in fourth place, while Petro quadruples it and Fico triples it. The thesis that Fajardo and his allies have tried to position, in the sense that he is the only one who could beat Petro in a second round, is totally ruled out in light of this survey.
Although in that scenario, the CNC survey shows that Fajardo would have 38.3% and Petro would reach 41.5%. What now seems mathematically impossible is that the former governor of Antioquia may have the chance to go to a second round, since his intention to vote does not even reach two digits. In the consultations of March 13, Fajardo got fewer votes than Francia Márquez, now Petro’s vice-presidential formula. In addition, the trend, after those elections, shows that while Fajardo goes down, Petro and Fico go up.
As it is practically taken for granted that Petro and Fico will go to a second round, some analysts are now wondering what role Ingrid, Fajardo and Rodolfo will play. Where would the votes of his followers go? If the 2018 election is analyzed, it is clear that it mattered little, for example, the position of the blank vote that Fajardo adopted at that time. They ignored him. The vast majority of those who voted for him in the first round ended up backing one of the two candidates in the second. On the other hand, it was expensive for Fajardo to have gone to see whales.
At this point in the presidential campaign, political mechanics and alliances will be key. But the most important thing will be to connect with people and win the vote of opinion. There is no doubt that Petro has won crucial spaces for the first round. In regions such as Antioquia and the Coffee Region, it went from having a support of 9.21% in the first round of 2018, to an intention to vote today of 25.7%, with an eye on the next May 29. In Bogotá, likewise, its electoral force has been growing, since four years ago it had 29.92% of the votes in the country’s capital and today, according to the CNC survey, it is already at 44%.